← 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
Water FractalTier 2
at 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.6% | +7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 42.4% | -4.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tristan | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torpid Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |